A crisis may also mean danger and opportunity. The prevalence of new energy vehicles is an undeniable fact. From the original intention of its promotion, environmental benefits are very weighted scores. However, as the process of industrial chain evolution progresses, power battery treatment will deduct Expected benefits.
Lithium batteries, as devices that convert chemical energy and electrical energy, have a relatively reversible chemical reaction inside, and the side reaction between the negative electrode and the electrolyte is the main limiting factor of its cycle life. Usually, consumer batteries have a life cycle of 3-6 years. According to the function and frequency of replacement of electrical appliances, the end of life is about 5 years.
Since the promotion of new energy vehicles has started since 2013, it can be estimated that the first batch of battery replacement pilots will be around 2018. It is widely expected that the first peak of power battery scrapping will be ushered in 2018. From 2018 to 2020, the total amount of power batteries that have been scrapped nationwide will reach 120,000-200,000 tons. There is a more radical view that by 2020, the amount of scrap will reach 280,000-300,000 tons.
According to the reporter's understanding, at present, for the "retired" power battery, the current treatment methods are mainly divided into two types: ladder utilization and dismantling and recycling.
The use of ladders refers to the use of high-powered batteries, after inspection, for low-power use, the principle is similar to that said in a battery advertisement: the battery used by the toy car, the remote control can still be used, the current use of the ladder is only For the slightly depleted power battery, it is applied to low-power electric equipment to achieve the purpose of secondary utilization. The battery that has reached the level of heavy scrap after the use of the ladder will enter the dismantling and recycling process.
Dismantling and recycling is the process of dismantling, separating, purifying, smelting, etc. of the scrapped battery by chemical methods, and recycling and recycling the metal elements such as lithium, nickel, cobalt and manganese in the battery. Industry insiders told reporters that in fact, most of the current power battery treatment is only to the stage of dismantling to the battery core, and there is no further treatment, and the use of the ladder is always at an end.
From the point of view of this treatment, the cost of chemical treatment is the primary consideration, and the second is the assessment of battery loss, utilization, etc., the rational use of the process, and the cost of the process. From this point of view, before the technology is still mature and the industry has not yet formed a scale, it may be difficult to get involved.
At present, there are very few companies in China that have the qualifications for dismantling power batteries. The evaluation of used batteries and the development of special-purpose technology equipment still require a lot of capital investment. However, there is currently no fixed recycling channel for raw materials dismantled from batteries. The recycling price has been fluctuating, which makes it difficult for battery processing companies to achieve a profitable state at this stage.
The stage of industrialization will come. Assume that the new energy passenger car battery life cycle is 5 years, the commercial vehicle is 4 years, and the renewal rate after expiration (that is, the total number of batteries that should be decommissioned after the real decommissioned battery/year expires) is increasing year by year, according to the output of the power battery in recent years. It is estimated that by 2018, the newly added scrapped capacity of power batteries will reach 11.14GWh, a substantial increase of 278.9%.
In recent years, the sales of electric vehicles have risen year by year, which also means that the amount of scrapped goods will show a high driving force, and the market space will be very attractive. According to relevant data, it is estimated that by 2020, the total amount of used power batteries in China will reach 200,000 tons. According to industry forecast data, in 2018, the waste power battery recycling market can reach 5 billion yuan. From 2020 to 2023, the scale of used power battery recycling market will further increase to 136-13.1 billion yuan.
Recently, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released a list of enterprises that meet the requirements of the new energy vehicle waste battery comprehensive utilization industry standard conditions. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology follows the "Interim Measures for the Management of New Energy Vehicle Power Battery Recycling and Utilization" and according to the "Standard Conditions for the Comprehensive Utilization of Waste Energy and Battery for New Energy Vehicles". After the enterprise declaration, the provincial industrial and information management department review, expert review, on-site verification and online publicity procedures, the list of enterprises (the first batch) that meets the "new energy automobile waste power battery comprehensive utilization industry standard conditions" will be announced.
There are currently five companies entering the list. They are Jianghuizhou Huayou Cobalt New Material Co., Ltd., Jiangxi Shengzhou Haopeng Technology Co., Ltd., Hubei Jingmen Greenmeixin Materials Co., Ltd., Hunan Bangpu Cycle Technology Co., Ltd., Guangdong Guanghua Technology Co., Ltd.
From the intention of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology to launch a list, there is encouragement and support. Vehicle companies, battery companies, raw material recycling companies and capital have entered the field of power battery recycling. With the decline of electric vehicle subsidies, will the power battery processing industry become a new blue ocean? The author believes that the electric vehicle industry is still accelerating the rising period, and the prospect of the power battery processing industry is expected.
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